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Commentary: Oil price, Petrofac, UOG, Getech

04/08/2022

WTI (Sept) $90.66 -$3.76, Brent (Oct) $96.78 -$3.76, Diff -$6.12 u/c, USNG (Sept) $ 8.27 +56c, UKNG (Sept) 365.0p -0.03p, TTF (Sept) €194.5 -€11.0

Oil price

To be honest there were few surprises at the virtual meeting yesterday as the new production allowances were worked out and came up with a paltry rise of 100,000 b/d. As readers will know this is a totally meaningless number as most members are currently way behind their quotas and any more allowances will not be filled. It is such a symbolic gesture to Sleepy Joe and he and his energy department will probably believe it.

The USA are still talking on other fronts, none less than re-starting tomorrow, the Iran discussions which have been off limits as Iran continue to build their stockpiles of enriched uranium all ready for missiles and weapons.

The EIA inventory stats showed a bigger build in crude of 4.467m b’s partly due to higher imports and with refinery runs of only 91% gasoline demand has been hit recently as reported here.

On the overall recessionary/inflation front the UK’s Bank of England have gone mega bearish today with a 50bp rise in rates plus best guess of inflation in the UK peaking at some 13.3% in October and the recession to start in Q4 ’22 for 5 quarters.

Petrofac

Petrofac, leading a consortium with Genie Civil et Batiment (GCB), has received notification of a provisional award for an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Sonatrach for the Tinrhert EPC2 Development Project in Algeria. The contract is valued at approximately US$300 million, with Petrofac’s share around US$200 million.

Located in Alrar, around 1,500 kilometres southeast of Algiers, EPC2 will provide a new Central Processing Facility (CPF) with inlet separation and decarbonisation units. The scope of work also includes tie ins to the existing Alrar Separation and Boosting Facilities, which Petrofac originally helped deliver in 2018, along with commissioning, start-up and performance testing. When completed, the development will boost natural gas production and remove CO2 from the field’s gas reserves, within specifications for the global market, enabling further economic growth in-country.

Elie Lahoud, Chief Operating Officer for Petrofac’s Engineering & Construction division said:
“The Petrofac and GCB consortium is testament to our focus on local delivery, through investment in local supply chains and work forces. We are very pleased to have been notified of this provisional award by Sonatrach, which reflects their confidence in our ability to drive in-country value, whilst safely delivering strategically significant energy infrastructure.”

This is a good contract to win by Petrofac and will be another contract that feeds through to 2023 revenues and as per all my recent blogs makes next year likely to show a proper return on the back of contracts out there now.

The shares came down too much in June and July and have rallied nearly 20%, at the very least the shares should revisit 160p and in dues course 200p and higher.

United Oil & Gas

United Oil & Gas Plc announce an update on the drilling of the Al Jahraa-14 development well (“AJ-14”) in the Abu Sennan licence, onshore Egypt. United holds a 22% working interest in the licence, which is operated by Kuwait Energy Egypt.

Summary

  • AJ-14 encountered seven metres of net oil pay in the Primary Abu Roash C (“ARC”) reservoir
  • Planned testing programme to include both Primary (ARC) and Secondary Abu Roash G (“ARG”) targets
  • AJ-14 is the seventh successful development well at Abu Sennan since United acquired its interest in the licence

The AJ-14 development well was primarily drilled to intersect the ARC reservoir, targeting reserves from an undrained area of the Al Jahraa Field identified from reservoir and simulation modelling work. The well safely reached total depth of 3619 metres ahead of schedule and under budget. A full logging suite was acquired through the ARC and 7 metres of good quality net oil pay has been interpreted in the reservoir, in line with the higher end of the pre-drill estimates.

The secondary ARG target was encountered 13 metres updip of the Al Jahraa-12 well, which was interpreted to have intersected an oil-water contact in this reservoir. Due to technical difficulties whilst running the logging tools a full logging suite was not acquired over the ARG interval in the AJ-14 well. However, there was sufficient encouragement from the Logging While Drilling tools to indicate potentially hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir, and to include the ARG in the testing programme.

Both the primary and secondary targets of the well are now planned to be tested and completed. If the testing is successful from either target, the well will be brought immediately onstream through the existing facilities, adding additional production and revenue for United. United will update the market on these results in due course.

Continuing Egypt drilling programme
The Sino Tharwa-1 rig used to drill AJ-14 will now be used to drill the ASH-4 development well, which is targeting 2.2 million barrels gross mean recoverable reserves in an undrilled compartment of the ASH Field. The rig move is expected to be performed over the next few weeks, with the well to spud shortly thereafter.

Brian Larkin, CEO commented:
“This is the seventh consecutive successful development well on the Abu Sennan licence since 2019. With oil prices remaining high, and the speed with which additional production can be quickly brought on stream through existing facilities, Abu Sennan’s strong cash generation and extensive reserve and prospect inventory provides a solid foundation on which to build United’s strategy. We are very excited about the remaining wells in the 2022 drilling programme, with the ASH-4 development well targeting 2.2 million barrels gross before the drilling of the final well in our 2022 programme, the high impact exploration well ASF-1X which is targeting over 8 million barrels gross.”

Another successful oil well at Abu Sennan for UOG and one that will add to revenues in very quick time. Egypt is proving to be a very good base as UOG is in the process of delivering on the other assets in the portfolio as well as keeping an eye on a number of M&A targets.

Getech

Getech has signed a $1.1 million multi-year contract with a major international energy company for its ‘Globe’ platform and launched the next generation of this innovative tool that models the Earth’s evolution over the last 400 million years.

The new Globe sale demonstrates the continued strong demand for Getech’s products. Approximately one third of this revenue will be recognised in the current financial year, with the balance over the subsequent two-year period. Alongside other recent contract wins, this gives additional visibility into the longer-term sales growth of the business.

Release of Globe 2022
Globe synthesises geoscience data into a ‘digital twin’ of the Earth – modelling geologic, climatic, and oceanographic systems to provide unique insight into the processes that locate and concentrate energy and critical mineral resources, which are essential to the delivery of a sustainable and secure energy transition.

The upgraded Globe 2022 has new content and functionality to deliver even more value for customers across transitional petroleum, critical minerals, geothermal and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) markets.  Featuring a new dynamic plate model and innovative approach to understanding sediment supply which are key to locating critical minerals, the platform also determines optimal CCS and geothermal locations to support global decarbonisation.

Getech’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Jonathan Copus, commented:
“We are encouraged by the continued strong demand we see for our products, delivering growth in revenue generation, but also importantly providing a strong base from which we can further explore strategic partnerships and opportunities to expand Getech’s own portfolio of low carbon assets.

The success of the global energy transition is reliant on a diverse range of solutions facilitated by the rapid development and application of technology and a significant increase in critical minerals supply. Getech’s Globe platform provides an excellent example of our ability to combine decades of experience and innovation with leading geoscience data to meet mounting market demand. Thanks to its fundamental role in de-risking natural resource exploration projects, Globe is optimally placed to accelerate the pathway to net zero.”

This is a cracking contract to win for Getech as the Globe platform has started to deliver meaningful contracts which pay out a third in year one and then over a two year period which is great for financial planning purposes. 

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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