David Bamford, Finding Petroleum

I’ve lost count of the number of folk who’ve asked me in the last few days whether I think fracking is going to deliver significant amounts of gas onshore in the UK. I confess I have moved from mumbling something about it being very complicated to a much simpler answer which is…

No!

A couple of reasons:

First of all, on pure geological grounds I align myself with Professor Stuart Haszeldine of the University of Edinburgh in summarising the issue as we’re rather late – in fact a couple of hundred million years too late:

https://www.ed.ac.uk/impact/opinion/uk-is-280-million-years-late-for-fracking-boom

Secondly, I observe that the shales that are now feeding a prolific unconventional (ie shale oil or gas) basin previously fed a prolific conventional petroleum province - at least that’s what the last 10-15 years in the USA have taught us.

Now I grew up in NW England and I’m pretty sure the first time I saw a ‘nodding donkey’ was in Texas – there’s no Lancashire petroleum industry!

So a geological model and (absence of) production data tell the same story.

In fact geology and production need to tell the same story.

It’s pretty easy then to imagine where in the world this might happen – North Africa, the Middle East, eastern Ukraine – onshore in these regions. Offshore of course there are plenty of places where the geology and production history indicate the presence of a rich shale source rock – our very own Kimmeridge Clay for example – but the economics haven’t worked at prevailing oil and gas prices. Maybe this is about to change!!

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Finding Petroleum