Quantifying Subsurface Risk and Uncertainty for Producing Assets

Date: 30 - 31 May 2023
Time: 8 hrs - 1:00pm-5:00pm BST
Location: Online
Tutors: Mark Bentley, Mark Cook or Richard Oxlade: TRACS International, Ltd

The quantification of risk and uncertainty is often discussed in the context of exploration and appraisal, yet most of the upstream E&P business concerns decision-making in producing assets. Handling uncertainty in development and production must deal with a growing and often imperfect production database against a backdrop of constantly changing circumstances. As the life cycle progresses, initial uncertainties over volume and productivity narrow but are supplanted by new uncertainties such as sweep efficiency, fine scale architecture and changing responses to new production mechanisms and techniques. These new issues demand a change in approach for the quantification of uncertainty, and vigilance is required to avoid the subsurface interpretation simply collapsing on to a best guess.

This short, focused workshop explores the key aspects required to manage subsurface uncertainties and associated risks during the producing field life, in terms of people, tools and approach. It will close with a set of questions to ask yourself and others, suitable for reference in informal personal or team reviews, peer reviews and peer assists.

You will learn to:

1. Resolve misunderstandings over definitions in risk and uncertainty.
2. Understand the key differences between uncertainty and risk in development, compared to exploration and appraisal.
3. Explain and mitigate common errors in handling probability.
4. Describe workflows for handling risk and uncertainty in development decisions.
5. Account for the impact of cognitive bias in E&P, and what to do about it.

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