KEYFACT Energy
Rose & Associates specialize in teaching concepts, procedures, and techniques of prospect and play assessment (for both the conventional and unconventional realms). The courses are offered to the industry both In-House and Open Enrollment.
Available courses:
Risk Analysis, Prospect Evaluation, and Exploration Economics
This flagship five day course covers all phases of exploration decision-making, and has been presented hundreds of times worldwide over the past ten years. With a strong practical orientation and abundant use of realistic exercises, we illustrate the applications and mechanics of the various concepts and analytical procedures involved in the evaluation and investment analysis of exploration prospects. Practical application of concepts and methods is demonstrated for participants using real prospects and abundant learning opportunities in which the student can win or lose small amounts of money. Concludes with a comprehensive integrated exercise where up to 36 concessions can be purchased and the prospects assessed are drilled to relate skill and profitability.
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Play-Based Exploration: Mapping, Volumetric, and Risk Analysis
This content- and exercise-rich, fun three (3) day course touches on quantitative analysis at the play level. The combination of lectures with group mapping exercises from an actual exploration play reflecting state of knowledge at two periods of time (circa 1980 versus present day) provides participants insights from the actual results as compared to their predictions. Here the focus is on map generation and analysis that apportion probability into shared/play-specific and local/prospect-specific probability for subsequent assessment and valuation.
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Play-Based Exploration / Player© Workshop
Taught in four (4) days, this content-rich, entertaining, and informative course is taught in a classroom setting where all students have access to workstations or PC’s with the Player© software loaded. The course combines important Play-Based Exploration (PBE) concepts with ‘how to’ exercises in Player©, focusing upon, Common Risk Segment (CRS) map creation and editing, post-drill well analysis, and yet-to-find resource calculations.
Quantification of Geological Risk
Taught in both a two (2) and three (3) day format, this course focuses on the concepts and principles of statistics as it applies to the petroleum system, estimation under uncertainty, EUR assessment given success, and chance of success for prospects. In the three-day format, an integrated team exercise is available, as well as sections on performance tracking and value of information.
DHI Interpretation and Prospect Risking
This two (2) day course explores the theory and methodology of seismic Direct Hydrocarbon Detection Interpretation (DHI) including discussion of the various techniques, their strengths, weaknesses, and pitfalls. Over the past decade, Rose & Associates, LLP has led an industry consortium to develop a DHI interpretation work process guide and educational tool to help assess the seismic amplitude anomalies that lead to probability assignments and resource potential uncertainty. The methodology (in software called SAAM) to evaluate all AVO class amplitude anomalies will be described including basic risk analysis definitions and analysis, prospect exploration settings, seismic and rock physics data adequacy, and numerous anomaly characteristics. Prospect examples and associated probabilities of geological success are examined. Trends and “lessons learned” from the drilled prospects in the database will be reviewed in a qualitative and quantitative manner.
Exploration Risk Analysis for Managers
This seminar is designed specifically for decision makers in both two (2) and one (1) day formats. We condense the extensive materials from our flagship five-day course into an accelerated format, using the portfolio and decision making as the constant reference frame. We make use of realistic exercise to illustrate the business concepts operative in the oil and gas business and the consequences of decisions at the prospect and portfolio level. The organization of the seminar follows the characteristic chain of considerations that attend most exploration projects, and is especially valuable for familiarizing managers with new concepts and terminology used by their technical staffs to analyze prospects and plays. It was designed specifically to meet the needs expressed by many professionals who complete the five-day course: “I wish my managers would take this course — otherwise, how will we be able to communicate?”
Mitigating Bias, Blindness, and Illusion in E&P Decision Making
Decisions in E&P ventures are affected by bias, blindness, and illusions which creep into our analyses and interpretations. This one to two day course examines the influence of these distortions and presents techniques that can be used to mitigate their impact. Bias refers to errors in thinking whereby interpretations and judgments are drawn in an illogical fashion. Blindness is the condition where we fail to see an unexpected event in plain sight. Illusions are misleading beliefs based on a false impression of reality. All three can lead to poor decisions regarding which work to undertake, what issues to focus on, and whether to forge ahead or walk away from a project.
This course begins by examining the types of bias, blindness, and illusions that affect us. Exercises, videos, examples, and discussions help illustrate how these exert themselves in our daily activities. We then address their role in the oil and gas industry via case studies that show their impact on decision-making. This is followed by real-world exercises using data from exploration and/or development projects to give participants practice in addressing bias, blindness, and illusions in their technical work. The course concludes by presenting a summary ‘toolkit’ with mitigation techniques that immediately can be applied to project work.
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Risk Analysis for Complex Traps
This two- or three-day course covers advanced topics that are intended to reinforce and expand upon the concepts learned in Rose & Associates flagship Risk Analysis course. The course’s focus is providing the attendees competency in the valuation of complex traps. This course begins by ensuring a common language of what defines a complex trap and why they are important and difficult to appropriately assess. A general workflow for evaluating complex traps is presented. Concepts such as chance dependencies between zones and play segments, the value of information, and the impact of aggregation on well, and platform development decisions. Exercises, examples and discussions help illustrate and reinforce the concepts presented. A closing real-world exercise, using project data, integrates the complex trap concepts.
Unconventional Resource Assessment and Valuation
This course (formerly referred to as the UCRA course) covers the assessment methods required for the technical and economic evaluation of drilling programs in unconventional resource plays. The course is designed for engineers, geoscientists, commercial team members, business analysts and managers that are charged with creating value from their unconventional resources. The premise for this course is that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability. Due to uncertainty and prevailing risks, unconventional resource assessment requires a probabilistic approach, rather than deterministic methods, which call for the ongoing study of key parameters to get ever closer to “The Answer.”
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Risk, Uncertainty & Economic Analysis of Oil Sands
This course covers the assessment methods required for the technical and economic evaluation of Oil Sands reservoirs. The course is designed for engineers, geoscientists, commercial team members, business analysts and managers who are charged with creating value. This course is based on the idea that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is key for maximizing profitability. Unlike traditional deterministic methods which call for the ongoing study of key parameters to get ever closer to “The Answer,” probabilistic methods recognize that most parameters are fraught with uncertainty.
Evaluating Shale and Tight Oil & Gas Reservoirs
These 3- to 5-day course provides an extensive introduction to the exploration, appraisal, and development of unconventional reservoirs. It identifies the data that needs to be collected, how to analyze and interpret it, and how to integrate and apply this knowledge to the decision-making process. Participants will develop a broad understanding of the practices and pitfalls in assessing these reservoirs and will reinforce this knowledge by analyzing case study posters as teams.
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Unconventional Resource Assessment and Evaluation Course for Managers
This manager’s course will introduce you to key concepts that are taught in Rose & Associates 5 Day “Unconventional Resource Assessment and Valuation” course. The course focus will be on understanding the output that your teams generate and some of the common flaws to be on the lookout for. We will showcase a few of our leading edge techniques such as Multi Variant Analysis for completion optimization and Sequential Accumulation plots for real time performance feedback based on limited well data sets.
Topics Covered:
- Statistics and characterizing uncertainty.
- Why understanding the principles of aggregation principles are critical to making the right Portfolio and Project decisions. Utilizing the power of aggregation to characterize a drilling program will be studied.
- An overview of how Multi Variant analyses can be used to develop optimal fracture completion designs.
- Sequential accumulation plotting for real time performance tracking of Type Curve performance, Cost or Cycle time attributes. We will explore the appropriate application and prediction strength of Production Type Curves including potential pitfalls to be on guard for.
- A geologic overview including common risk segment mapping techniques to identify “Sweet Spots” will be presented.
- Unconventional Project flow – deliverability, delineation, demonstration and full development. We will address the question of how many wells you need in each project phase before committing to full scale PAD development. A demonstration of an Unconventional Project work flow will be shown in R&A’s latest software: ProjectRA.
- Portfolio Management Considerations. A brief overview of key considerations in project selection will be explored.
Play-Based Assessment of Unconventional Opportunities
This course focuses on the assessment of unconventional plays and the identification of initial well locations within them. The course is centered around a seven-stage exercise in a shale play where participants 1) build maps to spatially quantify in-place oil/gas richness per square mile, 2) identify target acreage by overlaying maps with components affecting producibility, and 3) estimate play chance, establish value for candidate blocks, and formulate an entry strategy. The goal is to expose participants to all the key concepts and steps in the unconventional play-based assessment process, and then apply these to a real-life competitive bidding situation.
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Software Familiarization
We offer half day modules (taught in a minimum length of a single day) to cover familiarity and informed usage all of our software products. For example, when covering our Prospect Suite of Risk Analysis software tools we introduce various modeling techniques for data analysis (via Toolbox), resource calculation techniques (via MMRA), and how to assign various amount of shared and local dependency between prospective zones and subsequent aggregation to the prospect level (via the Multi-Zone Master). This course is highly recommended for personnel of licensees, but also is open to personnel of non-licensee companies to examine the versatile potential available.
Prospect Resources Assessment – Applied
This three-day course, for geoscientists and engineers involved in prospect assessment, consists of lectures and hands-on exercises. It provides participants with in-depth knowledge of methods used for the calculation of prospect resources and estimation of chance of success. Exercises to put the theory in practice are proposed to the students at the end of most of the chapters. These involve the use of the RoseRA and Toolbox applications; a tutorial of both is provided prior to the exercises. The course is particularly recommended for those companies that are in the process of transitioning to RoseRA. However, the methods taught in the course can be applied regardless of the software used; for those companies that do not use RoseRA, demo versions will be provided for the training course.
Project Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis
This three (3) day course features advanced decision analysis techniques and is designed for all engineers, planners, commercial team members and geoscientists that are charged with creating value beyond an exploration discovery or for conventional reservoir development projects. The premise for this course is that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability of oil and gas field development and operations.
Applied Statistical Modeling and Big Data Analytics
As companies strive to deliver value from “Big Data”, we need to extract as much intelligence as possible from our ever-expanding trove of static and dynamic information to improve operational efficiencies and make better exploration, production, and reservoir management decisions. This 3-day course provides the theoretical background and hands-on problem-solving practice to understand and apply fundamental concepts of classical statistics, as well as emerging concepts from data analytics. Attendees will receive a course notebook and digital reference material.
KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Rose & Associates