The 2023 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) was launched today at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. First published in 2007, the WOO offers a detailed review and assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects for the global oil and energy to 2045.

The 17th edition of the flagship publication takes on board recent energy and economic-related developments, particularly related to the shifting dynamics around net zero policies, with many populations questioning the targets and the benefits, policymakers reevaluating their approach to energy transition pathways and new technologies being developed and deployed. It also underscores the need to bring modern energy services to billions that continue to go without.

HRH Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman, Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Chairman of the Board of Trustees at KAPSARC was the special guest of honour and delivered remarks at the opening of the launch.

In HRH’s remarksو HRH Prince Abdul Aziz welcomed all attendees to KAPSARC as the Chairman of its Board of Trustees, especially HE Hayan Abdulghani Abdulzahra Alsawad, Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil.

HRH also thanked the attendees of MENA Climate Week 2023 for participating in this crucial event, noting that it endeavours to illustrate that we are taking a lead in this issue.

OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais, said it was a great privilege to launch the publication in the presence of HRH Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman and thanked Fahad Alajlan, President of KAPSARC, and his dedicated staff, for supporting with preparations for such an important OPEC event.

HE Al Ghais highlighted that the WOO 2023 provides a data-driven, fact-based outlook that emphasizes the realities we see before us. “The upshot is there is no credible way to address all the challenges before us without utilizing all available energy sources, all relevant technologies, and with energy market stability as a cornerstone for the huge investments required.”

“The WOO 2023 launch represents the culmination of many months of modelling, writing, review and production. It should be viewed as an insightful reference tool, one that underscores OPEC’s commitment to dialogue, knowledge-sharing and data transparency”, HE Al Ghais added.

OPEC believe that the future needs to see energy transition pathways that strive for an inclusive ‘all-peoples, all-fuels and all-technologies’ approach. We need to follow sustainable paths that enable economic growth, enhance social mobility, boost energy access, and reduce emissions at the same time.

These issues are part of the thinking and analysis that form the backbone of this year’s World Oil Outlook (WOO), as the Organization looks to share its data-driven views on how the future energy landscape may evolve, ones that offer some differing perspectives compared to past editions.

What is clear is that the world will continue to need more energy in the decades to come as populations expand, economies grow, and given the pressing need to bring modern energy services to those who continue to go without.

In this year’s WOO, global energy demand is seen expanding by 23% in the period to 2045, or on average by around 3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day every year. The only way this can be realized is through huge investments in all energies.

Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions. In this regard, our Reference Case sees oil demand reaching 116 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2045, around 6 mb/d higher than in the WOO 2022, and with the potential to be even higher.

For this to be achieved, oil sector investment requirements out to 2045 total $14 trillion, or around $610 billion on average per year. It is vital that these are made; it is beneficial for both producers and consumers.

Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos. History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energy’s interwoven complexities.

While the world needs more energy, alongside this there is also the need to continually reduce emissions, subscribing to global best practices and cutting edge, best-in-class technologies. For example, carbon capture utilization and storage, direct air capture, clean hydrogen technologies, the circular carbon economy, and others. These form part of the WOO’s spotlight on technologies that should play a key role going forward.

The WOO 2023 is available for download on the OPEC website and via two digital interfaces, the OPEC WOO App and a comprehensive interactive version, which can be accessed at woo.opec.org.

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: OPEC