Global electricity demand is set to rise strongly as its role in energy systems expands 

IEA's latest report finds that the world’s demand for electricity is rising at its fastest rate in years, driven by steady economic growth, intense heatwaves and increasing uptake of technologies that run on electricity, such as EVs and heat pumps. At the same time, renewables continue their rapid ascent, with solar PV on course to set new records. 

Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023, according to our Electricity Mid-Year Update. This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the exceptional rebounds seen in the wake of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The strong increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth around 4% again. 

Renewable sources of electricity are also set to expand rapidly this year and next. The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is on track to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025. 

Despite the sharp increases in renewables, global power generation from coal is unlikely to decline this year due to the strong growth in demand, especially in China and India, according to the report. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions from the global power sector are plateauing, with an expected slight increase in 2024 set to be followed by a decline in 2025. However, considerable uncertainties remain: Chinese hydropower production recovered strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decline in global power sector emissions in 2024. 

Slower growth in global oil demand expected this year and next 

World oil demand continues to rise at a slower pace in 2024 and 2025 than in the previous few years, according to our latest monthly Oil Market Report. 

The report finds that oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May. Growth in global oil demand is expected to average less than 1 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, tempered by energy efficiency improvements, the electrification of road transport, and weaker industrial activity in some markets. Our forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 remains largely in line with the level we predicted over a year ago. 

Meanwhile, global oil output trended higher in the second quarter of this year, led by the United States. For the whole of 2024, world oil supply is on track to increase by an average of 770,000 barrels per day to a record high. In 2025, global supply growth is projected to be much stronger, at 1.8 million barrels per day, with countries outside the OPEC+ group – mainly in the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil – leading gains for a third consecutive year. According to the report, these trends could ease pressure on oil markets, which continue to be affected by significant geopolitical uncertainty. 

Executive Director addresses EU ministers on key energy and climate issues 

Our Executive Director Fatih Birol recently travelled to Budapest, Hungary, where he addressed the EU Energy Ministers Meeting chaired by Hungarian Energy Minister Csaba Lantos. In his remarks, Dr Birol highlighted that a well-designed strategy to strengthen Europe's industrial competitiveness can ensure energy security, improve affordability, and deliver jobs and climate benefits. 

Dr Birol also held a bilateral meeting with President of Hungary Tamás Sulyok at the Presidential Palace. They discussed a range of issues, including the steps that Europe can take to accelerate progress on competitiveness and meeting its energy security and climate goals. 

Our Agency has been working to support Europe as it looks to lower energy costs, including by expanding clean energy sources, and take advantage of the energy industries of the future, which are set to play a growing role in the global economy. Read more in the joint opinion article from earlier this year that Dr Birol co-authored with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was elected last week for a second five-year term. 

Brazil's opportunity to lead the global dialogue on energy and climate

Brazil is a frontrunner in clean energy transitions. Among the world’s largest economies, it boasts the lowest share of fossil fuels in its energy mix, our new commentary notes. Now, it has a major opportunity as the G20 President in 2024 and as host of the COP30 climate change conference in 2025, it can lead the global energy transition agenda, drawing on its experience developing a renewables-based power system and a large biofuel sector. 

Brazil has overcome a myriad of challenges to become a clean energy leader. Over several decades, it confronted delays in major projects, blackouts and a series of economic setbacks driven by domestic and international factors. The commentary explores these challenges, how they bring valuable insights for energy transitions around the world, and potential avenues to speed up progress. 

It also looks at how Brazil can build on its diplomatic strengths to facilitate global cooperation and partnerships for building the new clean energy economy. The country has a long history of fostering international collaboration. Today, it also brings decades of knowledge on integrating renewables into energy systems, and on developing sustainable fuels. Brazil’s government can also make ensuring secure, fair and affordable net zero transitions in emerging and developing economies a top priority – and use its leadership role this year and next to advocate for stronger policies to support this goal. 

New Global Commission will champion policies supporting affordability and fairness

We have brought together a new Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions to examine how to design and implement policies that lead to a more equitable energy system – supporting decision makers around the world as they seek to prioritise affordability and fairness in clean energy transitions. 

The new Global Commission will draw on international best practices and the experiences of members to develop actionable recommendations. It is co-chaired by Teresa Ribera, Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, and Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira, Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, and comprises energy, climate and labour leaders from governments around the world, along with high-level representatives from international organisations and labour, Indigenous, youth and civil society groups. 

The launch of the Commission was first announced at the Global Summit on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions that we held at our headquarters in April. The first meeting will take place in October at the G20 Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. 

Natural gas demand growth picks up in 2024 but outlook remains uncertain 

Growth in global demand for natural gas picked up in the first half of 2024, climbing above its historical average, according to our latest quarterly Gas Market Report. 

The rise in consumption is mainly the result of higher gas use in industry, with growth increasingly concentrated in fast-growing economies in Asia. Both China and India returned to double-digit growth rates in the first half of 2024. Even so, the outlook for gas demand remains uncertain. Global production of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, contracted slightly in the second quarter of 2024, while geopolitical tensions are fuelling price volatility. Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting tighter market fundamentals. 

Geopolitical instability represents the greatest risk factor for the short-term outlook, according to the report. LNG trade has practically halted across the Red Sea since the start of the year, while Russia is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine, including underground gas storage facilities. In this context, security of supply for natural gas remains a key consideration for many energy policy makers around the world. 

Renewable sources of electricity are on course to expand rapidly this year and next

Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand this year and next, while solar and wind combined are poised to meet as much as three-quarters of growth. In 2025, the amount of electricity annually generated from renewables is set to eclipse coal for the first time. However, key variables – from weather to the economy – may impact the outlook.

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