WTI (July) $75.14 u/c*, Brent (Aug) $78.85 +$2.15, Diff -$3.71
USNG (July) $3.99 u/c*, UKNG (July) 90.0p +2.22p, TTF (July) €40.775 +€0.825
*Denotes US markets closed for Juneteenth Day holiday

Oil price

Yesterday President Trump gave markets a two week breather as he said that there was ‘a chance of negotiations’ in the near future. So is the a case of TACO (Trump always chickens out) or just putting Iran into the last chance saloon?

My read is that the US goes to a very much final set of talks in order to give Iran a chance to cave in and agree to having no enriched uranium and agreeing to free access by independent nuclear inspectors. If that is a red line then….boom!

Either way Iran is emasculated and would see its nuclear facilities, particularly at Fordow being dismantled either voluntarily or by US bombs. Option three is that Trump walks away under TACO leaving Israel to finish the job.

Finally, FWIW getting rid of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  doesn’t in itself solve the problem, with many fanatics standing in line makes the problem worse.

In the UK the spotlight has turned to the obvious attractions of domestic production of oil and gas and it is too much to ignore two sets of views from important industry participants ahead of  Cabinet decisions on a number of North Sea developments potentially imminent.

Firstly I am publishing an interview that Serica Chairman gave to the BBC radio 4 Today programme which is without doubt worth listening to and distributing.

Secondly and below that I reproduce an article from today’s City AM entitled ‘Ed Milliband forced to look again at North Sea oil and gas’.

–Dave Latin of Serica speaks on Radio 4

– City AM article

Ed Miliband forced to look again at North Sea oil and gas

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Ahead of today’s 2025 Annual General Meeting (“AGM”), Gulf Keystone, a leading independent operator and producer in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, provides an operational and corporate update.

Jon Harris, Gulf Keystone’s Chief Executive Officer, said:
“We are looking forward this morning to welcoming GKP shareholders to our 2025 AGM. The Company has performed well in the year to date, with robust local sales demand enabling gross average production of c.44,900 bopd, supporting continued free cash flow generation and an interim dividend of $25 million paid in April.

Looking ahead, our 2025 annual guidance is unchanged. While we have seen no material impact on Shaikan Field operations to date, we are closely monitoring the developing conflict between Israel and Iran. We are also continuing to engage with government stakeholders regarding an exports restart solution. While there remains no timeline, we are hopeful of ultimately reaching an agreement.”

Nothing much changes at GKP, they are producing well and selling into local markets giving very decent cash flow which solidly backs up the dividend payments given there are few other demands on the cash. Until the pipeline reopens there are no signs of expenditure on M&A so there are few reasons to see any growth organic or inorganic. 

Operational & Financial

• Strong safety track record, with Zero Lost Time Incidents for over 880 days
• Gross average production of c.44,900 bopd in 2025 year to date (to 18 June 2025):
  • Production supported by robust local market demand and optimisation initiatives offsetting field declines and well maintenance
  • Realised prices have remained at around $27-$29/bbl this year despite the recent fluctuations in Brent price
• Continued disciplined capital expenditures and strict cost control have supported free cash flow:
  • $25 million interim dividend paid in April according to the Company’s announced approach of semi-annual dividend reviews; the next Board review is expected around the Half Year Results in August
  • Debt-free balance sheet, with cash of $100 million as at 19 June 2025

Outlook

2025 operational and financial guidance

• 2025 gross average production guidance unchanged at 40,000 – 45,000 bopd:
  • The planned PF-2 shutdown, expected to last c.3 weeks, has been deferred from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, to support production and provide greater work programme flexibility
  • The Company continues to carefully manage natural field declines and production rates on certain wells constrained by water and gas
  • Production guidance remains subject to local market demand
• 2025 net capital expenditure and cost guidance unchanged:
  • Expect c.$20 million net capex on PF-2 safety upgrades and maintenance, with the majority of the required equipment purchases and activity taking place in 2025 despite the deferral of the facility shutdown to Q2 2026, and $5-$10 million on production optimisation initiatives
  • Continue to review plant initiatives to enhance production and improve reliability, including water handling
  • Operating costs guidance of $50-$55 million and other G&A expenses guidance below $10 million unchanged

Kurdistan exports

• GKP continues to engage with government stakeholders regarding a solution to enable the restart of Kurdistan crude exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline
  • The Company remains ready to resume oil exports provided we have agreements on payment surety for future oil exports, the repayment of outstanding receivables and the preservation of current contract economics

2025 AGM

Gulf Keystone is today hosting its 2025 AGM at 10 A.M. CET (9 A.M. BST) via webcast. It will not be possible to attend the meeting in person but all registered Gulf Keystone shareholders are invited to view the webcast at the following link: http://meetnow.global/gkpagm2025. Joining instructions are available on Gulf Keystone’s website: https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/agm.

The AGM will be hosted by David Thomas, Non-Executive Chair, and will include a presentation by Jon Harris, Chief Executive Officer, and Gabriel Papineau-Legris, Chief Financial Officer. A copy of the presentation will be available to view on the Investors section of Gulf Keystone’s website (https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/presentations). A recording of the presentation will also be available to view on the same page later in the day following the conclusion of the AGM.

United Oil & Gas

United Oil & Gas Plc (AIM: “UOG”), the oil and gas company with a high-impact exploration asset in Jamaica and a development asset in the UK, is pleased to announce that an updated technical presentation entitled “Evidence for a Petroleum System – Jamaica Licence” has been published on the Company’s website.

The presentation offers a concise and focused update on the Walton-Morant licence’s prospectivity, showcasing the extensive technical dataset that underpins the farm-out process currently underway.

While it builds on previously shared investor materials, this latest version offers a more geoscientifically led perspective, providing added insight into:

·      The extensive technical de-risking undertaken by the Company across the block

·      Evidence of a working petroleum system based on historical wells and regional analogues

·      Key features of the Colibri prospect and the multiple surrounding leads & prospects

·      The value-adding role of forward-looking technical work, including potential piston core surveying

The presentation can be accessed directly via the Company’s website:

https://www.uogplc.com/investors/presentations/

Brian Larkin, CEO of United Oil & Gas, commented:
“We are pleased to share this updated technical summary, which reinforces the Walton-Morant licence’s status as one of the most attractive frontier exploration opportunities in the region. With several parties under NDA, momentum behind the farm-out process remains strong. I encourage all investors to take the opportunity to review the updated presentation and see the potential strength and scale of the opportunity we are advancing.”

I wouldn’t normally share these sort of update, but in the case of UOG, I think it helps given how important the Walton-Morant licence is.

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog