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Commentary: Oil price, CEG, Predator, Tower, Prospex, Petrofac

01/07/2025

WTI (Aug) $65.11 -41c, Brent (Sep)* $66.74 +33c, Diff -$1.03 +33c
USNG (Aug) $3.46 -28c, UKNG (Aug) 77.92p -0.08p, TTF (Aug) €33.01 -€0.315

*Denotes expiry of August Brent contract

Oil price

As we start the new quarter and the second half of the year, oil is modestly better this morning. But ahead of us is the Independence Day holiday on Friday when the US is closed and then of course Opec+ meet on Sunday.

Challenger Energy Group

In February 2025 the Company entered into an agreement for the disposal of the entirety of its operations in Trinidad and Tobago (refer to the Company’s RNS of 18 February 2025). The agreement contemplated the regulatory approval necessary for closing of the sale being finalised by 30 April 2025. This date was extended to 30 June 2025, due to the snap-election called in Trinidad and Tobago in mid-March and the resulting change in Government.

The Company and the buyer have since made considerable progress in terms of satisfying requirements for the necessary regulatory approval, albeit the process has not fully finalised. The parties have thus agreed to further extend the date for closing of the sale transaction to seven days after the grant of regulatory approval, with a revised longstop date of 30 August 2025.

In anticipation of completion in the near-term, the Company and the buyer are working collaboratively to ensure a smooth and efficient transfer of ownership and operations once final regulatory approval is obtained.

Not a surprise to see this delay, elections cause delays to these sorts of approvals and the new date looks like it should be hit and CEG are ready for when that happens when it does.

Predator Oil & Gas

Predator has provided an update on its acquisition of the Challenger Energy Group’s entire operations in Trinidad and Tobago.

  • In February 2025 the Company entered into an agreement for the acquisition of the entirety of the Challenger Energy Group’s (“Seller”) operations in Trinidad and Tobago (refer to the Company’s RNS of 18 February 2025). The agreement provided for the regulatory approval necessary for closing of the sale to be finalised by 30 April 2025. This date was extended to 30 June 2025, following the parties administrative closing uncertainty due to the snap-election called in Trinidad and Tobago in mid-March and the resulting change in Government in May 2025.
  • The Company and the Seller have since made substantial progress in terms of satisfying requirements for the grant of the necessary regulatory approval, albeit the process has not fully finalised. The parties have thus agreed to further extend the date for closing of the sale and purchase transaction to 7 days after the granting of regulatory approval, with a revised longstop date of 30 August 2025.
  • In anticipation of completion in the near term, the Company and the Seller have commenced working collaboratively on the ground in Trinidad, so as to ensure a smooth and efficient transfer of ownership and operations once final regulatory approval is obtained.

 Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive of Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc commented:
“Over the last two months we have been carrying out an internal technical and commercial re-assessment of the Company’s diverse portfolio of assets in Morocco and Trinidad. This has taken into account prevailing uncertainty in terms of equity market volatility, crude oil price fluctuations and unstable foreign exchange markets. All of these factors combine to under-value early stage oil and gas exploration, appraisal and development.

Following this review the Company is focussed going forward on preserving its cash; maintain its debt-free status; increasing its portfolio of producing assets in Trinidad; financing and monetising its near-term oil and gas development projects at minimal cost to the Company; and maintaining third party-funded future  “blue sky” exploration potential for gas and helium.

Acquisition of the CEG operations in Trinidad will facilitate production growth and revenue generation through integration with our existing production operations to deliver economies of scale.

Preparations and planning are ongoing to drill the Snowcap-3 well in Q1 2026. A rig has been identified and subject to certification a rig contract will be entered into. The Snowcap-3 appraisal well is targeting the best producing sand in BP’s former Moruga West field 1.5 kilometres southeast of the Snowcap-3 proposed well location. In Moruga West individual wells have flowed initially at up to 303 bopd from this single interval with maximum well recovery for a single well of 455,000 barrels of oil over field life has been achieved. Snowcap-3 is therefore a key well for boosting our producing portfolio and can potentially be tied in quickly and at low cost to enable early monetisation. There are several options to organically-finance the well later this year through an asset sale and/or partnering with a local company.

In Morocco we will update the market this month on the execution of the testing programme for the shallow “A Sand” in MOU-3, for which we are fully-funded. We will announce a collaboration agreement for the design, financing and execution of the initial phase of the MOU-3 development upon publication of the test results. We anticipate first gas sales by the end of 2026 subject to all the usual caveats of regulatory approval and technical due diligence.

We are completing our review of the MOU-5 drilling results and will be updating the market on progress after the testing of MOU-3 has been completed.

MOU-5 is an important well as it has introduced a completely different understanding of the key Mesozoic section on the flanks of the Guercif biogenic gas system and thus what might be under it as well. As a result there is potential to be investigated and refined for a deeper, large Triassic objective under MOU-5, analogous to the geological settings of the Meskala, Tendrara and Hassi R’Mel (Algeria) gas fields, albeit up to 1,000 metres shallower which should enhance possible reservoir quality. This is in addition to the original primary objective in MOU-5 of the Jurassic Domerian carbonate bank, which can be evaluated updip to MOU-5.

The Company intends to maintain interest in the “blue sky” MOU-5 updip and deeper potential through a farmout process to be initiated in Q3 2025, with the intention of securing a carried interest in a 3D seismic programme over the MOU-5 structure in 2026.

The MOU-5 helium chromatograph show and the helium analysed in a gas sample in MOU-3 has now been put into compelling structural context in terms of the geological model for helium generation.

Satellite remote sensing for helium and gravity/magnetic modelling of the possible helium source below MOU-5 is in progress and is fully-funded.

Upon the completion of these desktop studies the Company will seek a farmout to secure a carried interest in a dedicated helium well to be provisionally drilled in 2026. There is no certainty that a farmout can be achieved but the Company anticipates that it may enter into a helium collaboration agreement beforehand, given the attractive attributes of the MOU-5 structure as a potential helium target.

We thank shareholders for their patience over the last few months during a period of volatility in global markets and the resulting negative impact on shareholder values. Our focus has been on strengthening our multiple projects to create potential growth in shareholder value over the next 12 months. This is by no means a certainty as market conditions are beyond the control of management. However maintaining a debt-free status and increasing production revenues provides an important financial safety net.”

Paul Griffiths makes similar comments on the delay in Trinidad but adds a comment on the operational aspects of the Snowcap-3 well scheduled for Q1 2026. He points out that ‘there are several options to organically-finance the well later this year through an asset sale and/or partnering with a local company’.

He also notes that he will be updating from Morocco ‘this month’ on the testing of MOU-3, also funded and will also comment on MOU-5 with its positive interpretation including the possibility of helium below.

However he cautions that ‘this is by no means a certainty as market conditions are beyond the control of management. However maintaining a debt-free status and increasing production revenues provides an important financial safety net’. 

Tower Resources

Tower has announced that the Company has agreed to expand its Bridge Loan, announced on 26 March 2025, by £250,000, from £500,000 to £750,000. The other terms of the Bridge Loan remain unchanged.

The Bridge Loan is an unsecured fixed-price convertible loan (the “Bridge Loan”) provided by Prime Resources Limited (“PR”) with a term of up to 12 months from 25 March 2025, and convertible into ordinary shares at a fixed conversion price of 0.05588 pence per share (being a premium of 100% to the average of the 5 daily VWAPs prior to the original issue date) if not prepaid earlier. PR is a Gibraltar-registered private investment company and is not related to the Company’s prospective farm-in partner Prime Global Energies Limited.

Tower Resources Chairman & CEO, Jeremy Asher, commented:
“The purpose of the Bridge Loan remains to provide the Company with working capital flexibility in preparation for the drilling of the NJOM-3 well on the Thali license in Cameroon. We are now expecting completion of the Cameroon farm-out shortly, however, with the Admarine 510 rig scheduled to be in Cameroon in October, we need to proceed with the contracting of other services.  We are also making progress towards completion of the Namibia farm-out, and will update investors with concrete news on both projects when appropriate.”

It is so good to see things actually happening on the ground at Tower after years of preparation and as the company gears up operationally in Cameroon it is not surprising to see them expanding the Bridge loan. Buying the kit to go with the rig is an important part of the process and seeing that happen is exciting.

Whilst the Tower share price has been somewhat erratic in recent months I can’t help but feel that those who have had enviable patience in the stock for a very long time may well be about to be rewarded and there is little doubt that Jeremy Asher has created a good portfolio in some of the hottest post codes in the oil and gas world right now. 

Key Terms of the Bridge Loan

The Company has agreed a fixed-price convertible loan, now increased from £500,000 to £750,000 with PR, with a duration of up to 12 months from the original drawdown. The material terms of the loan comprise a 5% cash implementation fee payable on drawdown (which is immediate) and interest of 15% per annum or pro rata until repaid, accrued daily and paid on the maturity date. The loan agreement states that as long as the Company’s share price (as defined by the average of the 5 latest daily VWAPs) is below the fixed conversion price, then the Company has the right to prepay the loan with accrued interest to the date of repayment and no further fees, with 10 business-days’ notice, in which case the conversion right immediately lapses on repayment. However, if the Company’s share price is higher than the fixed conversion price, then it will be at the lender’s discretion to accept an early cash redemption.  

The loan is unsecured, but Tower’s operational subsidiaries are parties to standard corporate guarantees, and the facility contains standard default provisions.

Importantly, the terms of the Bridge Loan do not include the issue of any warrants or other equity-linked instruments other than the standard fixed-price conversion right if not repaid with interest. 

Prospex Energy

Prospex  confirmed yesterday, further to the announcement made at 7.01am on Wednesday 25 June 2025, the result of the Company’s Placing, Subscription and WRAP Retail Offer at the Issue Price of 4.5 pence per share. Terms defined in the Retail Offer Announcement have the same meanings in this announcement.

The Company has raised aggregate gross proceeds of £137,009 pursuant to the WRAP Retail Offer, alongside the previously announced Placing and Subscription. Accordingly, the Company will issue a total of 3,044,638 new Ordinary Shares at the Issue Price pursuant to the WRAP Retail Offer.

In addition, as a result of market demand, the Company has raised a further £9,000 through the issue of 200,000 new Ordinary Shares by way of a direct subscription (“Additional Subscription”) with the Company.

The Placing, Subscription, WRAP Retail Offer and Additional Subscription have raised, in aggregate, gross proceeds of approximately £1.2 million for the Company, through the issue of 26,170,193 new Ordinary Shares in aggregate.

The gross proceeds from the Fundraise have bolstered the Company’s cash reserves. Prospex will be covering the cash call for the ongoing workover of the Viura-1B well in northern Spain and looks forward to advising shareholders when production resumes.

Mark Routh, Prospex’s CEO, commented on the Fundraise:
“We are delighted with this Fundraise, and I would like to give my thanks to all of our investors.  The support received, which led to both the Placing and Subscriptions being oversubscribed and an Additional Subscription being added, is testament to the value prospects of our company.  Our portfolio of producing European assets combined with our defined development strategy to add new wells and expand into new jurisdictions, provides tangible value which we are ready to unlock.  Board members and senior management have participated in this Fundraise and we are committed to delivering on our growth strategy and maintaining our highly active pace in order to build Prospex into a mid-tier energy producing group in Europe for the benefit of all stakeholders.”

This raise has confirmed that demand exists for a well-run company that does the right things properly, ie that despite net zero, maybe because of it, there is a need for an energy producer in Europe to satisfy huge local demand. 

It doesn’t always work the way that we would all want, some decisions are made by other partners, some countries have delay culture built in, but if you can handle that then lock away a few Prospex…

Petrofac

The Court of Appeal has today upheld an appeal, brought by certain creditors connected with the Thai Oil project, against the Order of the High Court which sanctioned the Restructuring Plans of Petrofac Limited and Petrofac International (UAE) LLC.

The appeal was upheld on narrow grounds associated with the terms of the New Money financing and the evidence provided in support of it, that had previously been accepted by the High Court. All other grounds of appeal were unsuccessful.

The Company is carefully studying the detailed judgment, which was made available to it this morning, and will discuss with key stakeholders the implications of the judgment and potential routes forward.

The Company will provide further updates in due course.

Yet another fly in the ointment for Petrofac, it looks to the untrained eye that a small but irritating fact has got in the way of the court proceeds….

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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