In its annual forecast of the UK’s energy transition, the independent energy expert and assurance provider DNV has predicted that a “green prize” lies in wait for the country as it decarbonises its economy. 

In this exclusive question and answer session, its Vice President of its Energy Systems division, Sarah Kimpton, has outlined the organisation’s outlook for the next quarter century. 

Q: Thank you for joining us, Sarah. DNV’s UK Energy Transition Outlook report maps out how the country will deliver a cleaner, more efficient and less expensive energy system. But will we meet out our legally binding net zero targets? 

A: Under current trajectories that we foresee, the answer is ‘no.’ We forecast that the UK will achieve an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions versus 1990 levels by 2050. That’s significant progress, but it falls short of the net zero goal. Forecasts show reductions of 58% by 2030, 68% by 2035, and 82% by 2050. These are impressive numbers, but they do not go far enough.

Q: What are the main blockers preventing us from reaching our net zero targets on time?

A: Several areas of decarbonising the UK economy are facing persistent challenges that risk slowing progress. A continued dependence on fossil fuels remains one of the biggest hurdles, with DNV forecasting that unabated gas will still generate around 12% of the UK’s electricity by the end of this decade.

Progress in other sectors is also expected to lag. Transport remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels and, despite significant uptake in the use of electric vehicles, the transformation of the vehicle fleet will be a gradual process. 

Similarly, the transition of home heating will move slowly, with limited heat pump uptake taking place and many homes projected to still use natural gas in 2050. At the same time, the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen infrastructure is not keeping pace with what’s needed.

However, despite these roadblocks, and the wider economic and geopolitical headwinds, the UK’s overall trajectory remains positive, with significant opportunities to accelerate progress if action is prioritised now.  

Q: What’s driving electricity demand growth, and how will the grid adapt?

A: Between 2021 and 2050, electricity demand will grow at 3% per year, while peak demand will grow faster at 3.5% per year. This gap means the grid must be built to deal with higher instantaneous peak loads and infrastructure congestion management.

The transmission network will expand from 27,000 circuit-km in 2023 to 75,000 circuit-km by 2050; HVDC lines will grow from 3% to 7% of the transmission network; and the distribution network will almost double from 850,000 km to ~1.8 million km.

One thing that we must remember throughout all of this is that geography matters. Most of the UK’s new wind capacity will be far from demand centres.  For example, renewables systems built in Scotland serving the rest of the UK, make long-distance transmission essential despite distributed generation trends. Storage will be a critical piece of the puzzle too, helping to smooth peaks, balance variability, and make the most of the expanded transmission network.

Q: How will storage support this renewable-heavy system?

A: With baseload capacity falling in absolute and proportional terms, storage is now central to balancing supply.

At this moment in time, there are four pumped hydro stations, two in Wales and two in Scotland, and 5 GW of battery storage, which mainly consist of lithium-ion for intraday shifts and ancillary services. 

By 2030, we predict that battery power capacity will quadruple, with growth in both large transmission-connected and smaller distribution-connected projects.

Beyond 2030, there will be competition from long-duration technologies such as flow batteries, compressed/liquid air and new pumped hydro.  For very long duration storage and to maximise recovery of renewable energy, storage of low-carbon hydrogen in salt caverns will ensure energy security at peak demand.

Q: There are also huge ambitions for hydrogen, but are we on track?

A: Hydrogen is crucial to the future makeup of the UK’s energy system, but it is currently underdelivering on targets.

By 2030, we forecast production to reach 0.9 Mt/year total, with only 25% low carbon (~4 GW capacity), which is far short of the 10 GW target. By 2050, it will make up around 8% of UK final energy demand at 4.7 Mt/year. 

At the mid-century mark, 46% of this total will power transport (including maritime, aviation, H₂ derivatives); 31%: industry (heat and feedstock); and 23% dispatchable low-carbon power generation.

When it comes to embedding hydrogen into the UK’s energy system, the most cost-effective route is to repurpose existing natural gas pipelines. This pathway is likely to start with hydrogen and natural gas/biomethane blends, and shift to 100% hydrogen once production scales.

We just need to look at Germany for inspiration: it has already agreed to repurpose 60% of pipelines for its core hydrogen network. Back home, the decision is pending.

Q: What does the future of CCS look like in the UK?

A: The short-term looks rocky, and early capacity will miss targets, but growth post-2030 looks strong. 

The target for five years’ time is 20-30 MtCO2 per year but we forecast that we will reach just 5 Mt by then. However, fast forward another half decade and the quantity jumps to 42 MtCO₂/year. By the mid-2040s, CCS will peak at 54 MtCO₂/year.

In the coming years, early CCS will focus on power generation and blue hydrogen from current large emitters. But as electrolytic hydrogen ramps up, blue hydrogen demand, and associated CO₂ capture, will decline, as will CCS for power generation by the late 2040s.

Q: What’s the big picture for energy demand and supply by 2050?

A: Final energy demand will be down 25% vs. 2021, thanks to efficiency from electrification. Electricity demand will increase 2.3x compared to today’s levels. While fossil fuels currently makeup around 75% today of energy demand today, that will decrease to 34% by 2050.

Q: Will this transition have an impact on consumers?

A: We believe it will have a positive effect. By 2050, average household energy bills are projected to be ~40% lower than 2021 levels, due to a number of factors but primarily the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps in a more efficient energy system.

Q: Sarah, thank you very much for your time. But one final question: is net zero by 2050 still possible?

A: Technically yes, but it demands early, decisive policy action, faster electrification of heat and transport, scaled CCS and hydrogen, and massive investment in grid expansion and storage. Without that, the UK will still make historic progress, but the effort required to get over the finish line remains gargantuan. 

DNV is a global quality assurance and risk management company. Driven by their purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, the company enable their customers to advance the safety and sustainability of their business. DNV provide classification, technical assurance, software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil & gas, power and renewables industries. The company also provide certification, supply chain and data management services to customers across a wide range of industries. Combining technical, digital and operational expertise, risk methodology and in-depth industry knowledge, DNV empower their customers’ decisions and actions with trust and confidence. 

DNV continuously invest in research and collaborative innovation to provide customers and society with operational and technological foresight. With origins stretching back to 1864 and operations in more than 100 countries, the company's experts are dedicated to helping customers make the world safer, smarter and greener.

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