Gayle Meikle
Proud African. Connecting upstream leaders from around the world, promoting energy resources to the global market. Founder & CEO, Frontier Energy Network

A Strategic Frontier Assessment of Global Competitiveness

Through Frontier’s PetroInvest platform, I work closely with governments across Africa and globally to shape and execute their upstream licensing strategies - advising on positioning, investor engagement, and how to compete effectively for international capital.

This week, I have had a series of deeply encouraging and strategically important conversations with Africa’s regulators about their active or upcoming bid rounds. The message was consistent across jurisdictions: there is a renewed determination to promote opportunity, attract more international investors, and position their countries competitively in an increasingly contested global upstream market for capital.

What is emerging is not simply a continuation of licensing activity. It is the building of a licensing cycle that, in Frontier’s assessment, represents Africa’s strongest upstream investment opportunity set in more than two decades.

This article provides a strategic overview of Africa’s licensing landscape in 2026 - 2027, grounded in verified regulatory announcements, S&P Global Global Commodity Insights reporting, Enverus market analysis, and official regulator disclosures. These reflections are my own, based on my direct experience working with governments, investors, and industry leaders across the global upstream sector.

Libya Returns: The Reopening of a Tier-1 Petroleum Province

Libya’s recent licensing awards represent one of the most significant upstream developments globally and the excitement in the industry is palpable. On 11th February 2026, Libya’s National Oil Corporation announced the results of its first licensing round since 2007, ending a 17-year hiatus in acreage awards. Winners included Chevron, a consortium of Eni and QatarEnergy, Repsol (with partners including MOL and TPOC) and Nigeria’s Aiteo.

This is a critical signal to global markets. Libya is not a frontier basin in geological terms - it is one of the world’s great petroleum systems. The Sirte Basin alone has produced more than 40 billion barrels historically, and extensive exploration potential remains across both onshore and offshore acreage (S&P Global Commodity Insights). What changed was not geology, but stability, regulatory readiness and openness to engage. Libya’s return reflects renewed government engagement and confirms that one of the world’s most resource-rich petroleum provinces is once again competing for global capital.

Nigeria’s 2025 Licensing Round: One of the Largest Active Global Opportunities That Benchmarks Globally

Nigeria’s current licensing round - officially launched on 1 December 2025 by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) - offers one of the most substantial acreage packages available globally. The round includes 50 blocks total and the Nigerian regulator has stated the round is expected to attract approximately $10 billion in investment, reflecting the scale and materiality of the offering.

The round operates under Nigeria’s updated regulatory framework following implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which introduced reforms designed to make serious improvements to fiscal competitiveness and regulatory clarity.

Nigeria remains one of the world’s most established petroleum systems, with:

• Over 37 billion barrels of proven reserves
• Extensive infrastructure
• Multiple producing basins across onshore and offshore settings

From a global benchmarking perspective, the scale and diversity of acreage in Nigeria’s current round place it firmly among the most material licensing opportunities currently available.

Egypt’s Continuous Licensing Model: Structural Modernisation and Leading National Data Platforms

Egypt has emerged as one of Africa’s most structurally advanced licensing environments through implementation of its Egypt Upstream Gateway (EUG) and the Open Blocks Licensing Program (OBLP).

This system provides continuous access to acreage across multiple basins, including:

• Mediterranean offshore
• Nile Delta
• Western Desert
• Gulf of Suez
• Red Sea frontier basin

Separately, Egypt has formally launched a Red Sea offshore bid round, offering four frontier blocks (RS-1 to RS-4), opening an entirely new offshore petroleum province. Major operators active in Egypt include Eni, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell.

Egypt’s continuous licensing model represents a structural shift toward globally competitive acreage access mechanisms. While not identical, it reflects principles similar to Norway’s open acreage approach, providing greater flexibility and responsiveness to investor demand.

Algeria: Strategic Gas-Focused Licensing

Algeria’s upstream regulator ALNAFT has initiated preparations for a new licensing round expected in 2026, including formal nomination processes with industry participants.

Algeria’s strategic importance has increased significantly due to European demand for non-Russian gas supply, positioning its licensing opportunities within a broader geopolitical energy security framework.

Namibia: One of the World’s Most Important New Petroleum Provinces

Namibia has rapidly become one of the most significant global exploration success stories.

Discoveries in the Orange Basin by operators including TotalEnergies, Shell, and Galp and nimble independents such as Rhino Resources have transformed the basin’s outlook. Reuters reported in February 2026 that Namibia has seen approximately 6.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered, placing it among the most material new petroleum provinces globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights has noted Namibia’s offshore developments could begin production before the end of the decade, reinforcing its emergence as a long-term strategic supply basin.

Namibia’s rise reflects the continued global importance of the Atlantic Margin petroleum system, extending from Brazil and Guyana through West Africa.

Africa’s Exploration Position in the Global Context

Africa’s upstream resurgence reflects broader structural shifts in global exploration. Rystad Energy estimates that approximately 40% of planned high-impact exploration wells globally in 2026 will be drilled offshore Africa, highlighting the continent’s central role in global exploration strategy

This concentration reflects both geological opportunity (world-class petroleum systems) and the relative scarcity of remaining large-scale conventional exploration opportunities globally.

Frontier Strategic Assessment: Africa’s Strengthening Competitive Position in Global Licensing

Based on regulatory activity, exploration outcomes, and capital allocation trends, Frontier assesses that Africa has now re-emerged as one of the most important global upstream licensing regions.

This conclusion is supported by several structural developments:

1. Major Basin-Opening Discoveries - Namibia has fundamentally reshaped global exploration priorities.

2. Reopening of Mature Petroleum Provinces - Libya’s licensing return represents the reopening of a Tier-1 producing basin.

3. Structural Modernisation of Licensing Frameworks - Egypt, Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria have implemented regulatory and fiscal reforms improving competitiveness.

4. Global Exploration Scarcity - Large-scale conventional exploration opportunities globally are increasingly concentrated in fewer basins.

5. Energy Security Imperatives - African oil and gas resources are playing a growing role in global energy supply diversification.

Africa, a Core Global Licensing Destination

Africa is offering a primary licensing destination and is now firmly positioned among the world’s most important upstream investment frontiers, alongside Brazil and Guyana. Critically, capital allocation decisions are being made now, and there is a question of whether enough is being spent on exploration globally to replace reserves.

Africa Energies Summit® | Africa’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 11th - 14th May 2026 arrives at precisely this inflection point - bringing together the governments offering acreage, the companies allocating capital, and the decision-makers shaping the next generation of global upstream investment.

I look forward to welcoming regulators and NOC's from all of the above mentioned countries to London to get deals done.

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Frontier