WTI (Apr) $96.14 -18c, Brent (May) $108.65 +$1.27, Diff -$12.51 +$1.45
USNG (Apr) $3.17 u/c, UKNG (Apr) 153.86p -24.14p, TTF (Apr) €61.98 -€4.87

Oil price

Oil is slightly up today, WTI is $96.41 and Brent $109.95 as I write. The gas market is likely more spiky than oil, the attacks on Ras Laffan will mean that 17% of the site will take five years to repair. More US troops are on the way to the Gulf but they have to find a way of stopping the Iranian missiles and drones or else they might as well pack your toys and go home…

Jadestone Energy

Jadestone has mandated Arctic Securities and SB1 Markets as joint bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing 23 March 2026. A new 5-year senior secured bond issue with an initial issue amount of US$200 million may follow, subject to, inter alia, market conditions.

The Company’s largest shareholder, Tyrus Capital, has subscribed for and will be allocated US$25 million in the bond issue.

The net proceeds will be applied towards refinancing of existing debt and general corporate purposes.

This comes as no surprise to the market, the company has been open about refinancing the RBL this year and all financing options were on the table. This included other debt structures such as another RBL or bonds such as being offered today.

Replacing the RBL with a bond issue at this stage in Jadestone’s evolution makes a great deal of sense, it gives flexibility, primarily in removing the significant process around the hectic semi-annual redeterminations as well as swings in the borrowing base. 

Should the company raise the $200m that flexibility would be particularly helpful with regard to funding any Vietnam development capex, following the FDP approval this week and would enable the company to deliver on its strategic aims in that area. 

The bond issue would bring a number of positives for the company, near-term free cash flow generated would stay in the business as opposed to paying down the RBL and could be prioritised for growth and reinvestment. 

As for the strategy for Vietnam, as stated in the FDP announcement, the intent to farm-down has not changed and as such a partner would through a carry minimise the net funding required by Jadestone and with a stronger balance sheet be done from a position of relative financial strength. 

This is good news for the company, certainly financial housekeeping that they had said was a priority and it shows that the management team is ‘getting its ducks in a row’, executing on strategy and maintaining discipline that the market should appreciate. I remain convinced that there is plenty of upside with my target price remaining at 75p.

Arrow Exploration

Arrow has given an operations update and announce the results of its 2025 year-end reserves evaluation by Boury Global Energy Consultants Ltd.

All reserves volume figures stated below are on a Working Interest Gross Reserve basis. Currency amounts are in United States dollars (unless otherwise indicated) and comparisons refer to December 31, 2024.

Operational Update

Current Drilling Schedule 
The Mateguafa 11 (M-11) well has been drilled to a total measured depth of 11,455 MD feet (9,328 feet true vertical depth) and has encountered oil bearing sands in the C7 and C9 Carbonera formations. The well encountered 18 feet (TVD) of net pay in the C7 and 30 feet (TVD) of net pay in the C9. 

Management is planning to perforate these sands and initially produce from the C7. Expectations are that the well will be on production in the coming weeks. The M-11 well found the two zones structurally higher than any of the other Mateguafa Attic wells.  The M-11 results have extended the Mateguafa Attic structure to the south where more development wells will be drilled in the future. 

Due to the continued success at Mateguafa, Arrow now plans to continue development on the Mateguafa Attic field with a horizontal well targeting the C9 formation (M-12Hz).M-12Hz is expected to spud by the end of March. Following M-12Hz,  the rig will then move to the Icaco pad to drill the Icaco 1 (I-1) exploration well.   

Arrow continues discussions on the Tapir license extension with regulatory authorities. Management believes these discussions are positive and beneficial to all parties and that the extension will ultimately be awarded to Arrow and our partner.

Production
Corporate production is approximately 5,325 boe/d. Arrow expects additional production from the M-11 well which is expected to come online in the coming weeks.   

2025 Reserve Overview

Arrow’s 2025 reserves report shows steady performance with a significant amount of Arrow’s produced volumes having been replaced by the Company’s drilling campaign through the year.

Importantly, BouryGEC reserves report’s conservative oil price forecast (with current oil prices over 50% above its 2026 projection) has a significant effect on both valuation calculations and the viability of reserves classification.

When reviewing the 2025 reserve report it is important to understand the assumptions used by the reserve engineers when producing it.  In particular, the 1P reserves have been prepared assuming the Tapir block expires with the contract in February 2028. The 2P reserves assume the first 5-year extension period embedded in the Tapir contract is granted. The 3P reserves assume the second 5-year extension period embedded in the Tapir contract is granted. Management continues to work with the regulators and believes that the extensions will be granted to the partnership.

Discovery and successful development at Mateguafa Attic continues to provide both production and reserve growth to the Company and the vertical and horizontal well development at Mateguafa Attic will be reflected in future reserve reports. The BouryGEC reserves evaluation reinforces the significant value Arrow has generated in its Colombian assets and the Company remains enthused by the further potential value in its prospect portfolio. 

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow, commented:
“Looking out to the remainder of 2026, Arrow’s prospect inventory is multifaceted and demonstrates the hydrocarbon density of the Tapir block in the fertile Llanos Basin. Over the rest of the year, we look forward to a successful drilling campaign that is balanced between development and low risk exploratory wells.”

A reserves and operational update from Arrow where drilling continues to provide excellent results, indeed the M-11 well announced today has 18′ of pay in the C7 and 30′ of pay in the C9 sands which will be perforated and produce from the C7 in ‘the coming weeks’. 

The results were interesting, the well found the two zones structurally higher than any other attic wells and have extended the structure to the south where more development wells will be drilled in the future.

The well’s success means that Arrow are going to continue development on the Mateguafa Attic field by drilling a horizontal well targeting the C9 formation and will spud what will be the M-12Hz by the end of March. After that the planned the exploration well on the Icaco pad, I-1 will be drilled. 

The company say that they remain in discussions with the regulatory authorities with regard to the Tapir license extension. They say that these discussions are ‘positive and beneficial to all parties and that the extension will ultimately be awarded to Arrow and its partner’. It goes without saying that extension here would help P1 reserves in another reserve evaluation and value significantly added. 

The reserves report is positive, good performance although slightly down after excellent production almost all replaced by the drilling of so many successful wells during the year. Current oil prices add to the conservative nature of the report which if in any way continue will have a ‘significant effect on both valuation calculations and the viability of reserves classification’. 

Arrow has had a good share price performance and with such good progress with the drill bit looks well set for further gains. My target price of 40p leaves plenty of scope and as a Bucket List member I am confident of a good performance in such company. 

Afentra

Afentra said yesterday that it notes the recent media speculation and confirms that it has engaged with a limited number of counterparties with regard to a potential sale process in respect of the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of the Company.

Background to Strategic Review Process

Afentra, following a period of successful growth in Angola, has established a portfolio of offshore and onshore assets with significant growth and upside potential. Over this period the Company has established itself as one of the few independent oil & gas companies in Angola, where there is an increasing need for independent oil & gas companies to pursue the next phase of development of the country’s assets as the major oil & gas companies divest non-core assets from their Angolan portfolios.

Over the last two years, Afentra has invested in the substantial Block 3/05 infrastructure and, as announced on 22 January 2026, is now ready to pursue significant growth opportunities, which will include three heavy workovers and the drilling of two production wells on Block 3/05 in 2026, namely Impala-2 and Pacassa SW-1. Each of these activities offers the potential for substantial standalone production increases and reserves growth and, assuming success on Impala-2 and Pacassa SW-1, additional wells may be drilled on each of the fields. The Company is also in the process of screening an additional 20+ heavy workover opportunities on Block 3/05, offering further potential to grow production on the block. 

In addition to the development opportunities on Block 3/05, Afentra has a significant wider portfolio of assets in Angola, including an operated interest in Block 3/24 where Afentra is assessing the fast-track development of the Golungo, Palanca NE and Quissama (GPQ) discoveries, and a substantial onshore Kwanza basin position. On 13 January 2026 the Company announced a fourfold increase in its 2C Resource, including discoveries across Blocks 3/05, 3/05A and 3/24 and the potential resource base in the Kwanza basin is yet to be quantified. Afentra is currently acquiring geophysical data across this onshore acreage, including the previously produced fields in KON 4 and exploration acreage in KON 15 and 19, in order to delineate this highly prospective acreage.   

Given the significant potential within the Afentra portfolio and the position and reputation that Afentra has established in Angola, positioning the Company for further inorganic growth in the country, the Board has taken the decision to initiate a wider review of the Company’s strategic options. In this context, the Board has appointed Jefferies to engage a small number of financial and strategic investors to explore how they could assist the Company with its future capital needs and ensure the most efficient delivery of the significant growth potential of the Afentra portfolio and leverage the Company’s strong position in the broader Angolan market, which could include a sale of the Company to one of these parties. The Company is currently in discussions with a number of potential counterparties.

The potential sale process announced today is being undertaken alongside the Board’s consideration of alternative strategic options to finance the growth potential within the company. It remains possible that, following completion of this review, the Board will consider that Afentra and its shareholders would be best served by alternative strategic options available to the Company, including Afentra remaining as an independent listed company. There can therefore be no certainty either that an offer for the Company will be made nor as to the terms of any such offer. A further announcement will be made when appropriate.

I have to admit that I was somewhat surprised by the news from Afentra which came out during the day yesterday. I hadn’t seen any trade press/media speculation so the leak, if that is what it was, seems somewhat contrived, as it were. 

Afentra looks to be in a very good place right now and especially if a loading of crude is imminent, it will make a great deal of difference to paying for the upcoming drilling programme.

For the longer term the portfolio which has been painstakingly built up over several years is surely an improving portfolio, a Strategic Review Process is a marvellous way to operate from behind the market and may indeed smoke out a potential suitor. Either way in my view Afentra has created a fantastic store of value which may, or may not be franked here, low bids are not expected to be successful, by me that is…

Looking at who may be involved one can only think that those who have form in the area might be on Jeffries’ list, I would guess at BW Energy or maybe Maurel & Prom who have been active in the hood. Of course, one might look at Energean who may have suffered pre-empt from Etu, who have form on this and buying a ready-made portfolio could solve that particular problem…

The other thing that crossed my mind was what might happen to the Afentra onshore portfolio, a significant bunch of assets which I thought they might have added to by now. If you look at how far and how fast Corcel have moved in working on their onshore Angola assets they might look at this as a way of taking a commanding position in the Kwanza basin, and they have highly supportive shareholders with deep pockets. 

Afentra has fired the starting gun, at $110 oil it may be a ‘strategic process’ but the market has not taken this on board. The news coming out during the day had operators on the back foot and they only rose 6% on the day, and 2.5% today, hardly the stuff of the speculative traders that normally pile in on these occasions. 

Watch this space, as they say…

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog