The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.’s (bp) current estimates and expectations for the second quarter of 2026, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period. The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the second quarter 2026 and is not an estimate of those results.

bp’s group results for the second quarter 2026 are scheduled to be published on 4 August 2026.

Updated 2Q26 guidance

Earnings considerations for 2Q 2026 underlying RC profit before interest and tax, relative to 1Q 2026:

• Reported upstream production in the second quarter is expected to be 2,170 to 2,220mboe/d (1Q 2026: 2,339mboe/d) due to seasonal maintenance predominantly in the Gulf of America and the effects of disruption in the Middle East. Within this,

  • gas & low carbon energy is expected to be 750 to 770mboe/d (1Q 2026: 798mboe/d).

  • oil production & operations is expected to be 1,420 to 1,450mboe/d (1Q 2026: 1,541mboe/d).

• Gas & low carbon energy segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of +$0.5 to 0.7 billion. These include the impact of price lags and the changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be broadly flat compared with the first quarter.

• Oil production & operations segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of +$1.8 to 2.1 billion, including the impact of the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE. Exploration write-offs are expected to be around $(0.5) billion this quarter, primarily reflecting the impact of the sale of Bay du Nord in Canada.

• Customers & products segment: compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to reflect the following factors:

  • customers – seasonally higher volumes, higher fuels margins and broadly flat integrated midstream performance.

  • products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of +$1.2 to 1.4 billion. We expect throughput of 1,445 to 1,475mb/d (1Q 2026: 1,527mb/d), reflecting higher planned turnaround activity and lower Whiting volumes following the April third-party event. The oil trading result is expected to be slightly higher compared with the first quarter.

Other financial considerations for 2Q 2026:

• The group underlying effective tax rate for the second quarter is expected to be between 33% and 37%, due to the geographical mix of profits.

• Net debt at the end of the second quarter is expected to be in the range of $22 to 23 billion (1Q 2026: $25.3 billion). This reduction is after:

  • the payment of $2.9 billion to redeem the €2.5 billion perpetual hybrid bonds on 22 June 2026 in line with plans to reduce hybrids by $4.3 billion by end 2027. Remaining hybrid bonds are expected to be around $13 billion at 2Q26 (1Q 2026: $16.0 billion); and

  • the payment for $1.1 billion Gulf of America settlement liabilities, which contributes to an expected working capital build in the range of $0 to 1.5 billion.

As a result, we expect the total of net debt, hybrids and Gulf of America settlement liabilities to reduce by around $6.3 to 7.3 billion compared with the first quarter.

• The second quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments of around $1.0 billion. These charges are primarily attributable to transition businesses in the gas & low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.

KeyFacts Energy: bp UK country profile