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Commentary: Oil price, Aminex

06/11/2019

WTI $57.23 +69c, Brent $62.96 +83c, Diff -$5.73 +14c, NG $2.86 +4c

Oil price

Oil continues to drive slowly upwards, yesterday it was the turn of Barkindo who said that Opec cuts may be modest as the market for 2020 looks brighter than expected. The API stats showed another build, this time of 4.3m barrels and crude is down about 35c this morning ahead of the EIA numbers this afternoon.

Aminex

A corporate and operations update from Aminex this morning where they announce that John Arthur replaces Max Williams as CFO but doesn’t join the board. Max has a long history with Aminex and helped create the impressive base that the company is now building on.

The 2020 work programmes and budgets for all licences in Tanzania have been submitted to the Government for approval which includes a gross contingent ca$40m programme for drilling Chikumbi-1 and the acquisition of extensive 3D and 2D surveys over the the Mtwara licence the cost for which Aminex is fully carried.

APT has agreed to fast-track select Chikumbi-1 pre-drilling activities and has appointed a management team to oversee Tanzanian operations backed by an office due to open shortly in Dar es Salaam. Further good news is that AEX will shortly commence receiving advance payments of up to $3m against the cash consideration due on completion of the Ruvuma farm-out and has also applied for a three year extension of the Nyuni Area PSA with a revised work programme.

The good news for Aminex is certainly stepping up apace, it is clear that both APT and AEX  ‘have seen recent positive movements in Tanzania with respect to the general business environment, growing demand for natural gas consumption and the approaching completion of the government’s review of production sharing agreements.’ The important part in my view is that the growing demand for natural gas consumption, which has prompted the fast-tracking already mentioned should mean that drilling operations at Chikumbi-1 will at long last proceed.

What is abundantly clear now is that there are not only signs of genuine progress on the ground in Tanzania but that all parties are pursuing this with renewed confidence. A substantial programme of work is imminent and backed by the establishment of an office in Dar es Salaam by APT.

With the first payment from them due shortly shareholders can now have real confidence that at last their patience looks likely to be rewarded.

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